Wednesday, April 9, 2008

New orders

Today's purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply is the latest piece of data showing that firms, which have battled against Chinese competition and a strong pound for years, may be on the up. The long-awaited rebalancing of the economy away from its over-reliance on the consumer may at last be taking place.

The PMI has hit its highest level since November 2004, a much stronger reading than City pundits had expected and one which tallies with official data on overall economic growth last week showing manufacturing made as big a contribution as the dominant services sector, something that has not happened for a long time.

It also comes after a strong Confederation of British Industry survey last week. It looks as if firms are benefiting from the industrial recovery in the eurozone - the destination of half of Britain's exports.

With banks reporting that people have rediscovered the urge to save and start to pay off their debt (although today's CBI retail survey was also stronger than expected) the economy will have to rely much more for its growth on the manufacturing sector in the next couple of years so the pick-up is well-timed.

After the recent strong run of data on the UK economy, any chances of another interest rate cut this year are fading fast.

·Ashley Seager is the Guardian's economics correspondent

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